Space-X rocket to crash on moon August 5, 2026 06:?? utc visible from USA. Dust cloud visible expected.
Should we organize a viewing opportunity somewhere??
I’m not sure this could be an event. It might be something someone might try to imagine. Here is a link about what is happening. Looks like at around 1:35am CDT. Looks like the Moon will be 22 degrees high due East. Might need to go somewhere to see it due to trees at my house.
I’ll plan to prepare for it and will join if we schedule an outreach. But from what I’m still reading, it’s not expected to be visible to my eyes through my 5” refractor.
“ August 5 Falcon 9 Lunar Impact
… keep expectations realistic.
Current predictions suggest the impact may produce a brief flash or a sunlit ejecta plume, but its brightness is highly uncertain. Most observers should not expect an obvious visual event, especially with modest-aperture telescopes. Those using sensitive, high-speed video cameras will likely have the best chance of recording anything.
A new observational paper by an international team of lunar researchers encourages both professional and amateur astronomers to observe, while emphasizing that the event’s visibility cannot yet be predicted with confidence. (arxiv.org)”
And I’ve just found this (best) source reporting directly from Bill Gray (that others are quoting):
(Updated as recently as July 17]
The estimated time I read was at 06:30UTC or about 1:00AM. It will be a significant impact.
I plan to setup my 8inch classical cass with a camera and run video capture. Should be able to capture any significant happenings. Weather should be OK, toasty.
Where and when will it hit the moon?
“With the data I’ve seen as of 2026 July 17, I’m computing an impact on 2026 August 5 at 06:34:32.9 UTC (Universal Time), probably plus or minus a few seconds. Locally, that will be :
- 1:34:32.9 AM (US) Central Daylight Time
…The impact point will be at lunar latitude 19.455 N, longitude 266.406 E = 93.594 W. … It will be close to the edge (“limb”) of the moon as seen from earth, on the sunlit part. The moon will be a little more than half illuminated at the time… The impact will be close to the crater Einstein, in a heavily cratered part of the lunar surface….In theory, the time is good to about half a second, and the position… around 300 yards…we will have a more exact answer …in the days before impact, it will be quite well placed..”
All from:
IMHO, the predicted impact location should be optimal for detecting a dust plume arising from the impact.
Nearness to the edge of the moon against the darkness of the space and in sunlight is promising for image capture. Worth a try I think.